It’s hard to believe, but March has finally arrived! That means that conference tournaments are starting soon, Selection Sunday is just around the corner, and lots of money can be made if you are an educated bettor.
Let’s look at strategies for betting on March Madness: Round by Round.
Round of 64
The round of 64 is perhaps the trickiest round, based on the sheer number of games happening. Some games might seem like a lock (Such as the 1 vs 16 or 2 vs 15 games). The problem with these games are the huge spreads and long moneyline odds. Sure, a 16 seed has only beaten a 1 seed one time, but you have to throw a ton of money around to make betting on the 1 seed even worth it.
Plus, 1 seeds are notorious for letting up near the end of blowout victories in this round to prepare for the round of 32. This might just ruin your spread bet as well. Look for more evenly matched games, such as 8 seeds vs 9 seeds or 7 seeds vs 10 seeds.
Note: 5 seeds are notoriously unreliable bets in the first round. According to ncaa.com, at least one 12 seed has beaten a 5 seed in 31 of the last 36 tournaments as of 2021. In 2019, only one 5 seed made it out of the first round.
Round of 32
If you’re looking to bet a big upset, this is the round to look at. You see, 1 seeds often seem to worry more about this game, as many would consider most of the 8 and 9 seeds to be sold short. For instance, last year, Illinois got knocked off by Loyola Chicago. Many considered Loyola to be sorely under-seeded, and they certainly looked like they had a chip on their shoulder against the Illini.
In the round of 32, look for the teams that play the best defense and take care of the ball. Ask anybody who has played basketball, and they will agree that these skills are essential for winning games on short rest.
Offensive rebounding is another stat to look at, as the better offensive rebounding team can often take advantage of a tired opponent.
Sweet 16
For the sweet 16, it is important to look back at history again. Two fifteen seeds have made it to the Sweet 16, but neither won their game. 14 seeded Chattanooga made it in 1997, and 13 seeded Bradley made it in 2006. Last year, 12 seeded Oregon State was the lowest seeded team to ever win a Sweet Sixteen game.
It is worth noting that last year’s Sweet Sixteen had the highest average seed number, so it may be worth taking a shot on a few upsets happening this year.
Elite 8
Top dogs rule the Elite 8, generally, with a few exceptions. A few 10 and 11 seeds have won in the Elite 8, but it isn’t consistent. UCLA was the big surprise last year, but it seems to be best to go with the favorites in the Elite 8. Pick upsets at your own risk, but if you must, look for teams that shoot the ball well from deep. If a team gets hot, who knows?
Final 4
If the Elite 8 usually favors the lowest seeds, then the Final Four almost always does. Very rarely does a higher numbered seed win in the final four. 2014 was the most notable example of higher numbered seeds winning in the Final Four. In fact, the championship that year featured an 8 seed against a 7 seed.
Championship
While everyone would like to dream of a Cinderella team making it all the way to the National Championship and getting the job done, it is best to stick with the top dogs in this round. Even if a higher numbered seed makes it this far, you should probably go with the favorite in this game. If you do want to pick an upset, look first at the team’s defense and rebounding stats. As they say: “Defense wins championships”. So does rebounding.