Cyclone Arnab has intensified over the Bay of Bengal and is threatening India’s eastern coastline, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasting a potentially dangerous landfall along the Andhra Pradesh coast on October 28, 2026. The storm is expected to bring powerful winds, intense rainfall and a risk of flooding across coastal areas and neighbouring states.
As authorities step up preparations, the key question is how strong Cyclone Arnab could become and how much damage it may cause when it reaches land.
How Strong Could Cyclone Arnab Become?
According to the IMD’s forecast, Cyclone Arnab is expected to cross the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam as a very severe cyclonic storm, with maximum sustained winds of 115–125 kmph and gusts reaching up to 140 kmph. The system is forecast to approach the coast by the forenoon of October 28.
These wind speeds are powerful enough to damage vulnerable buildings, uproot trees, bring down electricity poles and disrupt road and rail transport. The actual impact will depend on the cyclone’s final intensity, its precise landfall location, the duration of strong winds and the amount of rainfall received in affected districts.
A cyclone’s intensity is not measured by wind speed alone. Heavy rainfall, coastal flooding, storm surges and the condition of local infrastructure can significantly increase the destruction caused by the system.
Which Areas Are Most at Risk?
Coastal Andhra Pradesh is expected to face the most direct impact as the cyclone approaches land. Areas near the eventual landfall location could experience the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall.
Southern Odisha is also under close watch, particularly districts likely to receive heavy to very heavy rain and strong winds. The IMD has warned that the weather system could continue to influence inland areas after crossing the coast.
Forecasts indicate that rainfall could extend into Telangana, southern and central Chhattisgarh, eastern Uttar Pradesh and Bihar as the system moves inland and weakens. Even after the cyclone loses strength, its remnants may produce persistent rain and localised flooding in areas along its path.
What Kind of Damage Could the Cyclone Cause?
1. Damage to Homes and Infrastructure
Winds reaching 115–125 kmph, with stronger gusts, could cause extensive damage to temporary houses, roofing sheets, signboards and other exposed structures. Trees and electricity poles may fall, potentially causing power cuts and communication disruptions.
Transport services could also be affected by waterlogged roads, debris and safety-related cancellations of trains. Residents in vulnerable coastal locations may face difficulties travelling during the height of the storm.
2. Heavy Rainfall and Flooding
Heavy to very heavy rainfall, with extremely heavy showers at isolated locations, is forecast over parts of coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam. Rainfall could continue to affect neighbouring regions as the system moves inland.
Intense rainfall over a short period can overwhelm drainage systems, flood low-lying neighbourhoods and inundate agricultural fields. Rivers, streams and local water channels may also rise, increasing the risk of flooding in vulnerable locations.
3. Coastal Flooding and Dangerous Sea Conditions
Cyclones can push seawater towards the coast, creating storm surges that threaten low-lying coastal settlements. Combined with high tides and heavy rainfall, this can worsen flooding and damage coastal infrastructure.
Sea conditions over the Bay of Bengal are expected to become extremely dangerous near the storm. Fishermen have been advised not to venture into affected waters, and coastal communities should follow official evacuation instructions.
4. Disruption to Daily Life and Agriculture
Strong winds and flooding could damage standing crops, disrupt local businesses and interrupt electricity, telecommunications and essential services. Fishing communities, farmers and people dependent on road transport are particularly vulnerable to prolonged disruptions.
The overall economic impact will depend on the cyclone’s path, the duration of severe weather and how effectively preventive measures limit damage.
How Are Authorities Preparing?
Government agencies and disaster-management teams are coordinating preparations ahead of the expected landfall. According to the Cabinet Secretariat, cyclone shelters and evacuation arrangements have been organised, while National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) and State Disaster Response Force (SDRF) teams have been kept on standby. District control rooms are also monitoring the situation.
Authorities are urging residents in vulnerable areas to follow official weather bulletins, cooperate with evacuation efforts and avoid unnecessary travel during severe weather. Fishermen have been warned against entering affected parts of the Bay of Bengal.
What Should Residents Do to Stay Safe?
People living in potentially affected districts should secure loose outdoor objects, keep essential medicines and documents ready, charge mobile phones and prepare emergency supplies. Residents should stay away from flooded roads, fallen power lines and the seashore during dangerous conditions.
Anyone instructed to evacuate should move to an authorised shelter without delay. Official IMD forecasts and local administration advisories should take priority over unverified social media updates.
Conclusion
Cyclone Arnab has the potential to cause significant damage, particularly along the Andhra Pradesh coast, where winds could reach 125 kmph with gusts of up to 140 kmph. Heavy rainfall, possible coastal flooding and disruptions to transport and electricity are among the major concerns.
However, the extent of the damage cannot be determined by wind speed alone. The cyclone’s final intensity, landfall location, rainfall distribution and preparedness measures will all influence its impact.
As the storm approaches, timely warnings, responsible evacuation and adherence to official safety instructions will be crucial in protecting lives and reducing losses.
