As you know, during major sporting events such as the FIFA World Cup or the Olympic Games, betting volumes increase several times. It’s not because bettors decide to place larger bets on such events, but because the betting offices are flooded with players who are not particularly interested in sports in daily life.
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Peculiarities of non-professional betting
- Betting on the victory of the national team.
- Regardless of the strength of the opponent and the odds of the bookmaker’s office, most players will bet on the victory of the national team.
- Overestimating the injuries of the leading players of the opponent.
- Betting on a draw, if the opponent is head-to-head superior to the national team.
- The logic is approximately the following: yes, we can’t beat them, but we can play in a draw.
- The odds don’t count at all.
- It is quite possible mass betting on the market 1X with odds of 1.14, which leads to an increase in the odds of the opponent’s victory.
- The presence of distant sports players during major tournaments only benefits bettors. Once the line appears in the betting shops, there is a definite shift in the line to one side because of amateur betting. When the market is loaded, the odds on the opposite market increase. All people with little to no understanding of betting know about this.
When teams meet, it is necessary to assess the solvency of the population of the country or city, players’ access to the Internet, and their involvement in sports. For example, if teams from South Korea and North Korea were to meet in the World Cup, you would expect a “win for South Korea” market. The people of North Korea, for the most part, do not have access to the Internet and betting, so there is no dice for people of North Korea to bet. At the same time, the South Koreans will bet heavily on their national team.
A similar phenomenon could be seen in the last Asian Cup. In the matches of Australia initial odds bookmakers almost always then changed in one direction: on the victory of Australia’s odds went down and Asia’s win went up. The thing is that the Australians are gamblers. Must also take into account that this is one of the most prosperous countries in the world. The opportunities of Australian players are not commensurate with the players from Uzbekistan or Iraq.
There is publicly available data on the number of people in different countries who are involved in sports. It is also not very difficult to find out the financial capabilities of bettors from different countries. Based on this, you can predict the further behavior of the betting line as soon as it appears.
What tools should be used for analysis?
- The number of Internet users in the countries. Wikipedia has an article that lists the total number of Internet users in countries and their number as a percentage. For example, in South Africa, the number of users is over the 50 percent mark, while in Gabon only 7 percent of people use it. Already based on this data, it is clear that when the two teams meet, the South African team’s fans will have the biggest influence on the betting line-up.
- Let us find out the dynamics of the popularity of betting in the country. The service trends.google.com will help us in this. You can also enter the name of the tournament, which is currently being actively bet on. The service will show a summary of the data on the entered query. You will know the amount of interest in the topic in any of the countries. If the popularity index tends to 100, it means that the country is very often typed in this query, and if it is closer to zero, then, respectively, there is no interest in the country to this topic. To find out the index of the popularity of the query, you just need to put the mouse cursor on the desired country.
For example, the Betfair betting exchange is most popular in Europe and North America. In India, its index of popularity is 22, and in Pakistan 41.
- Determine the income of residents. Find the average income of the population and multiply that number by the number of men over 19 years old in the country. That way you can roughly compare betting opportunities in different countries.
In this strategy, you need to anticipate the movement of the line based on the above principles. The abundant mention of the tournament in the media leads to excitement in society. Interest in soccer, hockey, or any other sport wakes up the population strata far from sports.
Is it profitable to bet on major tournaments?
Yes, there is a whole raft of bookmakers that give a rousing welcome to both professionals and new bettors to try their hand in betting during major tournaments such as World Cup or UEFA Euro Cup.
How to make a successful bet?
You need to make a right prediction according to the data you’ve gathered earlier, make a bone-deep analysis of the match, and place a bet.