Since Mohamed Muizzu assumed the presidency, Maldives has been noticeably shifting its allegiance away from India towards China. The joint China-Maldives statement following Muizzu’s visit underscored their growing camaraderie, marked by thinly veiled references to India’s perceived “bullying.” Subsequently, Ahmed Nazim, the policy director at the Maldives President’s office, reportedly suggested that the “Maldivian delegation” proposed the removal of Indian troops by March 15 during the first India-Maldives High-Level Core Group meeting.
While this deadline wasn’t officially mentioned in the foreign offices’ statements from both countries, it comes on the heels of controversies over juvenile remarks by Maldivian ministers regarding Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Lakshadweep, demanding attention. However, a disproportionate reaction should be avoided.
Muizzu’s alignment with Beijing might appear as a significant shift, but it aligns with the historical political oscillation in Male, impacting the country’s external orientation. Muizzu’s predecessor, Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, was perceived as pro-India, whereas the current president campaigned on an “India out” platform.
The withdrawal of Indian troops was more of a political promise than a strategic move, considering India reportedly has less than 90 soldiers in Maldives. The tilt towards Beijing during Abdulla Yameen’s tenure and the role India plays in Maldivian politics shouldn’t be surprising.
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India’s significant military, economic, and strategic influence in the region might make neighboring countries uncomfortable. Certain aspects of India’s internal politics, such as expansionist rhetoric and blending religion with issues like illegal migration during elections, can raise concerns. Social media jingoism and calls for boycotting smaller neighbors further complicate matters.
How should Delhi respond to the perceived snubs from the Muizzu government? External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar offered a clear perspective on Saturday, stating, “… politics is politics,” and acknowledging that every country may not always support or agree with India. Smaller nations like Maldives may exploit rivalries between greater powers, specifically India and China. The current “India out” push, however, lacks nuance and recognition of geographic realities or shared interests. Maldives is merely 700 km from the Indian coast and over 6,000 km from China. From responding to the 2004 tsunami to addressing the drinking water crisis a decade later, India has consistently aided the Maldives. Simultaneously, China’s strategic interests in the Indian Ocean make smaller littoral states susceptible to Beijing’s diplomatic overtures.
Delhi must persist in engaging with Male and the people of Maldives. As the regional power, it should maintain a pragmatic approach without being overly sensitive.
